Atlassino Academy · Money and risk · Lesson 3
Chasing losses
When the money set for the evening is nearly gone, the pull to get it back is strongest. What chasing a loss looks like, the signs to notice, and what keeps the plan.
You set 100 units for the evening. 80 units of it is gone, and there is an hour left. What is the next move?
The short answer
Play the 20 units as planned, or stop. Both keep the evening inside the amount you set at home. The pull to put in more and get the 80 units back is called chasing losses, and it is the one move that most likely makes the evening dearer rather than the loss smaller. The 100 units is only an example amount for an evening, not a suggested one.
A bar for the money set for the evening, mostly used up, and three ways on: two of them inside the amount set at home, and one of them going past that amount.
80 units gone. 20 units left, and an hour.
- Play the 20 units as planned.Inside the amount set at home.
- Stop now, with the 20 units kept.Inside the amount set at home.
- Go past the plan to get the 80 units back.Chasing a loss.
Two of the three ways on stay inside the amount set at home; the third is the one this lesson is about. Amounts are in betting units, not pesos: a unit can stand for any amount, and the arithmetic is the same at any scale.
Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks
The hardest moment of an evening is rarely the first bet. The hardest moment is when the money set at home is nearly gone, and a voice says that one more try would put the evening right. That voice has a name, and once the voice has a name it is easier to hear for what it is.
What chasing a loss looks like
A Chilean casino operator’s responsible-gaming page names the step this lesson is about among the criteria of disordered gambling: after losing money at play, the player comes back another time to try to get it back, hunting their own losses, in the page’s own word.
- Coming backThe money is lost, and the player comes back another time to get it back.
- Bigger amountsPlay grows more frequent, and the amounts bet grow larger.
- Past the budgetThe evening runs on past the budget the player meant never to exceed.
Three shapes of one step: each of them goes on with the evening in order to recover what the evening has already cost.
The same operator’s advice is just as short: do not play to recover your losses.
The national regulator, the Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego, adds a warning about why you play: settle your problems before you play, because if you play to escape them, you may forget them for a while, but the problems will still be there.
The signs to notice
That operator’s page lists the criteria of disordered, or pathological, gambling, and several of them describe chasing from different sides; its page of definitions adds more frequent play and larger amounts bet.
- Needing to play with growing amounts of money to get the excitement you are after.
- Coming back another time, after losing money, to try to get it back.
- Deceiving family, therapists or others to hide how far gambling has gone.
- More frequent play, and larger amounts bet.
A list to notice, in yourself or in someone close, and not a score: nothing here adds the signs up.
The American Psychiatric Association keeps its own list, the signs of gambling disorder, and one of them is chasing: coming back again and again to try to get money back after losing it. A diagnosis is made against that list, by the manual it follows, DSM-5-TR, the 2022 revision, and it takes several of its signs over a year. One sign is not a diagnosis, a page written for players is not a diagnosis either, and nothing on this page diagnoses anyone.
One more hour on what is left
Here is what one more hour holds at an example bet of 10 units a spin on red, at a wheel with a zero and a double zero. In the SCJ catalogue an even-chance bet such as red is paid once its stake, and when the zero or the double zero comes up, a bet on red loses half of its stake, not all of it. At an example pace, a wheel like that runs at 38 spins an hour.
- A full hour10 unitsThe average cost of 38 spins at an example bet of 10 units a spin, 380 units bet in all.
- The same hour on the 20 units left8Spins before half of these evenings have less than one bet left.
Evenings that play the whole hour on what is left.
20.22% of evenings.
The average cost of a full hour is the price of an hour played to the end. On the 20 units left, most evenings are down to less than one bet before the hour is up, and in each of those evenings one more hour goes on only with money from outside the plan.
Playing on does not make a result due either: each bet is independent of the bets before it, and a run of losses does not make the next bet any more likely to pay.
Money from outside the plan, and a system at the next seat
A Chilean operator’s page says not to borrow in order to play, and its short self-check asks whether you have ever taken money from home or work to gamble or to pay debts, and whether you ask for money in order to play. The casino itself cannot lend: under the casino law, the operator may under no circumstances give players credit.
- In the planThe amount for tonight, set at home, and nothing more.
- Not in the planThe money you need day to day, and for the plans of your life.
- NeverMoney borrowed to gamble, and credit, which the casino may not give.
The money in the plan is set before the first bet. The regulator’s advice is to plan the time and the amount of money in advance; one operator adds not to risk the money you need day to day, and another to set a budget your means can bear and never go past it.
A player at the next seat with a system is offering a different way to get the loss back. No system of play turns a game that favours the house into one that favours you.
Leoformer dealer · rules and maths
I dealt for years, and the system at the next seat was a regular at every table I worked. The systems changed from month to month. The share of each bet the house kept did not change once.
A loss is the price of the evening, not a debt
The pages for players say why to play at all: to have fun, not for gain, remembering that you cannot influence the results; a player who plays responsibly plays for fun, not to make money, and knows that luck may go their way and that losing is possible too.
A loss read as a price
- Paid for an evening you have had.
- Its size was set before the first bet.
- It ends when the evening ends.
A loss read as a debt
- Owed back, the way a loan is owed.
- No amount was ever set for it.
- It carries on into the next bet, the next hour and the next evening.
One way to see it, and it is our reading rather than a line from those pages: chasing begins at the moment a loss changes columns, from the price of an evening to a debt to be paid back.
Money and time
The plan for an evening is two amounts decided before the first bet: the money for the evening and the time for the evening. The regulator’s advice puts both in one line.
- Before you goThe money and the time for the evening, decided at home, out of money you do not need day to day.
- Stop whenA bet goes up after a loss; play runs past the time you set; a hand reaches for money outside the plan.
- If it stops being funSelf-exclusion, which keeps you out of every casino in the country, in the guide to self-exclusion.
Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks
A loss is what the evening cost. It is not a debt the table owes you, and it is not a job left to finish tomorrow. Set the money and the time at home, and leave when either one is used up.
If getting it back has started to feel like the point of going, self-exclusion lets you keep yourself out of every casino in the country, and it is right below.
If it stops being fun
If gambling stops being fun, the SCJ self-exclusion applies in every casino in the country. Minimum entry age: 18 (age of majority under Law 19.221; Law 19.995 bars minors from gaming rooms). The casino may ask for an official ID. More on responsible gaming.
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Practice: down 80 units of 100 units
Tonight’s plan was 100 units. 80 units of that plan is gone, 20 units is left, and so is an hour. Three moments follow, one after another: a friend offering a loan, a player with a system at the next seat, and the thought of one more hour to get the loss back. A last moment closes the evening.
Nothing is scored here. There is no strip to fill: every moment is read through once, in order, with every answer explained. The amounts are an example, and nothing is bet.
Lesson done
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The practice table needs JavaScript. Here is one moment from it, with the answer.
One more hour
TONIGHT’S PLAN
- PLANNED FOR TONIGHT100 units
- GONE80 units
- LEFT20 units
- TIME LEFT1 hour
ON THE TABLE: RED, DOUBLE-ZERO WHEEL, 10 units A SPIN, AN EXAMPLE BET
At a wheel with a zero and a double zero, with an example bet of 10 units a spin on red, the thought comes: one more hour, and the 80 units comes back. What does that hour hold?
- Enough spins for the luck to turn and the 80 units to come back Playing on does not make a result due, and every spin keeps the same price. More spins mean more of that price, not a debt paid back.
- A full hour of play on the 20 units left, for 10 units, the average price of an hour 10 units is the average cost of an hour played to the end: 38 spins of 10 units, 380 units bet in all. On 20 units at 10 units a spin, most evenings are down to less than one bet long before the hour is up, so in most evenings a full hour needs money from outside the plan.
- On the 20 units left, less than one bet is left within a few spins in half of evenings That is the median: on 20 units at 10 units a spin, half of evenings have less than one bet left within 8 spins.
The whole hour is played in 20.22% of evenings. In all the others, the 20 units runs down to less than one bet before the hour is up, and one more hour goes on only with money from outside the plan: that is chasing.
Every moment in the practice run starts from the same plan for the evening, nearly used up. The figures for one more hour come from the same engine as the rest of this track, for an example bet named in the moment.
How the practice run works
Where the moments come from. Every moment starts from the same plan for the evening, nearly used up, and every wrong answer is a step outside the plan or the thought that leads to one, such as money borrowed, credit the casino may not give, a system at the next seat, an hour that runs past the money, or a bigger plan for next time. Only the moment about one more hour carries figures, because only that moment names a game and an example bet; the figures are worked out when the page is built, from every way the spins of that hour can fall, and nothing in the run is random.
Your progress stays in this browser, and nothing is sent anywhere.
Check yourself
Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks
Three quick ones. Pick an answer, then check it. No timer, no points: just whether it stuck.
Back to the question we opened with. The 80 units already gone is what the evening cost. The next move that keeps the plan is the 20 units still in it, played or kept; a step past it to get the loss back is chasing.
Help, tools and further reading
18+ across Chile · Play responsibly · self-exclusion is further up this page
Further reading
- Introduction to Probability (open version) · Charles Grinstead and Laurie Snell, Dartmouth CollegeThe roulette example worked out, and why no system of play changes who the game favours.
- The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos · Rachel Croson and James Sundali, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (2005)What gamblers at a real roulette table believed about “due” numbers, measured from casino video.
How it’s worked out
Sources, numbers, help and hosts
Where this happens. Every moment on this page is an evening in a room you can walk into. A screen at home has limits and tools of its own, and it belongs to a track of its own.
Sources. The account of chasing, the signs and the advice on borrowing and on the money set before the first bet come from the responsible-gaming pages of the national regulator and of two casino operators; that the casino may not give credit comes from the casino law, Law 19.995; how a bet on red is paid and what a zero takes come from the SCJ catalogue of games. A page’s advice is not a rule of any room, and an operator’s page is advice from that operator. The sign of gambling disorder is told in our own words from a page of the American Psychiatric Association, which names the manual it follows; that page is not quoted, and its button links to the page. Why no system changes the price, and why a result is never due, come from a university probability textbook, lecture notes and a study of roulette players. Every other claim carries a button with the sentence it rests on, the publisher who wrote that sentence and the date we read it; the sentences of the Chilean documents are in Spanish.
Numbers. The figures for one more hour are worked out when the page is built by the same engine as the rest of this track, for an example bet of 10 units a spin on red at a wheel with a zero and a double zero, where a zero takes half of the bet, by the rule of the SCJ catalogue: the average cost of an hour played to the end, the share of evenings that play the whole hour on the 20 units left, and the median number of spins before less than one bet is left. The catalogue does not print the price of a bet; the figures are our own calculation from its rule. The pace is an example pace, the one the rest of this course uses, not a measured one; no Chilean document we could read prints a pace for roulette. The amounts of the evening are an example, not a suggested plan.
Help. The help block comes from the data this site keeps for the country: we found no gambling helpline for Chile in the sources we could read, so the block names the national self-exclusion and the regulator’s switchboard, and nothing on this page prints a phone number of its own.
What is deliberately absent. There is no questionnaire on this page, ours or anyone else’s: the signs are a list to notice and not a score, and nothing here diagnoses anyone. No Chilean page we could read advises leaving bank cards at home or taking breaks along the way, so this page gives neither as advice of its own; no page we could read says how to talk to a friend who wants to get a loss back, so this page gives no advice on that either. Setting the limit itself is lesson 0.2. Streaks and the idea that a result is due are taken apart game by game in lesson 3.17. Self-exclusion has a guide of its own.
Hosts. Maya and Leo are illustrated characters. Their backstories, a former floor supervisor and a former dealer, are written for the course: neither is a real person, and neither speaks for any casino. The rules and numbers on this page come from the sources it cites, not from their experience.
No promise. Every casino game is played against the house. Knowing what chasing looks like makes the step outside the plan easier to see before you take it; nothing on this page gets a loss back, and nothing here says how an evening would end.
A plan set before the first bet
Planifica con anticipación el tiempo y monto de dinero que usarás para divertirte.Free translation: Plan ahead the time and the amount of money you will use to have fun.
Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego (SCJ) · Decálogo de Juego Responsable · read
Planifica con anticipación el tiempo y monto de dinero que invertirás en divertirte. No permitas que el juego te limite en otras actividades importantes y no arriesgues el dinero que necesitas para el día a día o tus proyectos de vida.Free translation: Plan ahead the time and the amount of money you will spend on having fun. Do not let gambling limit you in other important activities, and do not risk the money you need for your day-to-day life or your life projects.
Dreams · Juego responsable: Decálogo del juego responsable · read
Saber de antemano el tiempo y el dinero que voy a dedicar al juego como entretenimiento, es la mejor manera de no caer en el juego compulsivo o patológico.Free translation: Knowing in advance the time and money that I am going to devote to gambling as entertainment is the best way to avoid falling into compulsive or pathological gambling.
Define un presupuesto dedicado al juego que sea compatible con tus posibilidades económicas y comprométete a no superarlo en ningún caso.Free translation: Set a gambling budget that is compatible with your financial means and commit to never exceeding it under any circumstances.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read
Warning signs
el comportamiento de juego desordenado o patológico está caracterizado al menos por cinco o más de los siguientes criterios:Free translation: disordered or pathological gambling behavior is characterized by at least five or more of the following criteria:
Después de perder dinero en el juego, se vuelve en otro momento para intentar recuperarlo (tratando de 'cazar' las propias pérdidas).Free translation: After losing money gambling, the person returns at another time to try to recover it (trying to 'chase' their own losses).
Necesidad de jugar con cantidades crecientes de dinero para conseguir el grado de excitación deseado.Free translation: Need to gamble with increasing amounts of money in order to achieve the desired level of excitement.
Se engaña a los miembros de la familia, terapeutas u otras personas para ocultar el grado de implicación con el juego.Free translation: Family members, therapists or other people are deceived in order to conceal the degree of involvement with gambling.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: adicción al juego · read
Aumento de la frecuencia de juego y de la cantidad apostada.Free translation: Increase in the frequency of gambling and in the amount wagered.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read
A loss is the price of the evening
Cuando juegues, elige hacerlo para entretenerte y no para ganar. Recuerda que no puedes influir en los resultados del juego.Free translation: When you play, choose to do it to be entertained and not to win. Remember that you cannot influence the results of the game.
Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego (SCJ) · Decálogo de Juego Responsable · read
El jugador responsable juega para divertirse y entretenerse, no para ganar dinero. Sabe que puede tener suerte y ganar, pero que también puede perder.Free translation: The responsible player plays to have fun and be entertained, not to make money. They know they may be lucky and win, but that they may also lose.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: el jugador responsable · read
Going back to get it back
Después de perder dinero en el juego, se vuelve en otro momento para intentar recuperarlo (tratando de 'cazar' las propias pérdidas).Free translation: After losing money gambling, the person returns at another time to try to recover it (trying to 'chase' their own losses).
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: adicción al juego · read
No juegues para “recuperar las pérdidas”.Free translation: Do not gamble to "recover your losses".
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read
What chasing losses looks like
Después de perder dinero en el juego, se vuelve en otro momento para intentar recuperarlo (tratando de 'cazar' las propias pérdidas).Free translation: After losing money gambling, the person returns at another time to try to recover it (trying to 'chase' their own losses).
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: adicción al juego · read
Do not chase a loss
No juegues para “recuperar las pérdidas”.Free translation: Do not gamble to "recover your losses".
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read
Do not play to escape
Resuelve tus problemas antes de jugar. Si juegas para evadirlos, quizás los olvides por un rato, pero los problemas seguirán ahí.Free translation: Solve your problems before playing. If you play to escape them, you may forget them for a while, but the problems will still be there.
Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego (SCJ) · Decálogo de Juego Responsable · read
Warning signs
el comportamiento de juego desordenado o patológico está caracterizado al menos por cinco o más de los siguientes criterios:Free translation: disordered or pathological gambling behavior is characterized by at least five or more of the following criteria:
Después de perder dinero en el juego, se vuelve en otro momento para intentar recuperarlo (tratando de 'cazar' las propias pérdidas).Free translation: After losing money gambling, the person returns at another time to try to recover it (trying to 'chase' their own losses).
Necesidad de jugar con cantidades crecientes de dinero para conseguir el grado de excitación deseado.Free translation: Need to gamble with increasing amounts of money in order to achieve the desired level of excitement.
Se engaña a los miembros de la familia, terapeutas u otras personas para ocultar el grado de implicación con el juego.Free translation: Family members, therapists or other people are deceived in order to conceal the degree of involvement with gambling.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: adicción al juego · read
Aumento de la frecuencia de juego y de la cantidad apostada.Free translation: Increase in the frequency of gambling and in the amount wagered.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read
Signs of gambling disorder
Told on this page in our own words; the source is not quoted.
American Psychiatric Association · What is Gambling Disorder? · read
Red pays its stake once
Suertes Sencillas 18 números 1 vez la posturaFree translation: Suertes Sencillas (even-money bets) 18 numbers 1 time the wager
Section I. Cuestiones generales; II.1 Ruleta francesa; II.2 Ruleta americana
A zero takes half
Si sale el cero (0) y el jugador ha apostado sobre una suerte sencilla pierde la mitad de su apuesta.Free translation: If the zero (0) comes up and the player has bet on an even-money bet, they lose half of their bet.
Si sale el doble cero (00) y el jugador ha apostado sobre una suerte sencilla pierde la mitad de su apuesta.Free translation: If the double zero (00) comes up and the player has bet on an even-money bet, they lose half of their bet.
Section I. Cuestiones generales; II.1 Ruleta francesa; II.2 Ruleta americana
Playing on does not make a result due
For example, the Gambler’s Ruin random walk is a martingale because the outcome of the current bet is independent of the outcomes of all preceding bets.
The gambler’s fallacy is a belief in negative autocorrelation of a non-autocorrelated random sequence.
Thus he believes a tail is “due,” that is, more likely to appear on the next flip than a head.
Borrowing to gamble
No pidas prestado para poder jugar.Free translation: Do not borrow money in order to gamble.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read
Se confía en que los demás proporcionen dinero que alivie la desesperada situación financiera causada por el juego.Free translation: There is reliance on others to provide money to relieve the desperate financial situation caused by gambling.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: adicción al juego · read
¿Has tomado alguna vez dinero de casa/trabajo para jugar o para pagar deudas?Free translation: Have you ever taken money from home/work to gamble or to pay debts?
¿Pides dinero para poder jugar?¿Dejas de pagar obligaciones y dedicas el dinero al juego?Free translation: Do you ask for money in order to gamble? Do you stop paying obligations and devote the money to gambling?
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: ¿qué tal juego yo? · read
No credit from the casino
Bajo ninguna circunstancia el operador podrá otorgar crédito a los jugadores.Free translation: Under no circumstances may the operator extend credit to players.
Section Art. 7
A plan set before the first bet
Planifica con anticipación el tiempo y monto de dinero que usarás para divertirte.Free translation: Plan ahead the time and the amount of money you will use to have fun.
Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego (SCJ) · Decálogo de Juego Responsable · read
Planifica con anticipación el tiempo y monto de dinero que invertirás en divertirte. No permitas que el juego te limite en otras actividades importantes y no arriesgues el dinero que necesitas para el día a día o tus proyectos de vida.Free translation: Plan ahead the time and the amount of money you will spend on having fun. Do not let gambling limit you in other important activities, and do not risk the money you need for your day-to-day life or your life projects.
Dreams · Juego responsable: Decálogo del juego responsable · read
Saber de antemano el tiempo y el dinero que voy a dedicar al juego como entretenimiento, es la mejor manera de no caer en el juego compulsivo o patológico.Free translation: Knowing in advance the time and money that I am going to devote to gambling as entertainment is the best way to avoid falling into compulsive or pathological gambling.
Define un presupuesto dedicado al juego que sea compatible con tus posibilidades económicas y comprométete a no superarlo en ningún caso.Free translation: Set a gambling budget that is compatible with your financial means and commit to never exceeding it under any circumstances.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read
No system gets around the house edge
If you are in a casino, you will see players adopting elaborate systems of play to try to make unfavorable games favorable.
Unfortunately, such systems cannot change even a fair game into a favorable game.
As a rule of thumb, drift dominates swings in the long term.
A loss is the price of the evening
Cuando juegues, elige hacerlo para entretenerte y no para ganar. Recuerda que no puedes influir en los resultados del juego.Free translation: When you play, choose to do it to be entertained and not to win. Remember that you cannot influence the results of the game.
Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego (SCJ) · Decálogo de Juego Responsable · read
El jugador responsable juega para divertirse y entretenerse, no para ganar dinero. Sabe que puede tener suerte y ganar, pero que también puede perder.Free translation: The responsible player plays to have fun and be entertained, not to make money. They know they may be lucky and win, but that they may also lose.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: el jugador responsable · read
The time and the money, planned
Planifica con anticipación el tiempo y monto de dinero que usarás para divertirte.Free translation: Plan ahead the time and the amount of money you will use to have fun.
Superintendencia de Casinos de Juego (SCJ) · Decálogo de Juego Responsable · read
Planifica con anticipación el tiempo y monto de dinero que invertirás en divertirte. No permitas que el juego te limite en otras actividades importantes y no arriesgues el dinero que necesitas para el día a día o tus proyectos de vida.Free translation: Plan ahead the time and the amount of money you will spend on having fun. Do not let gambling limit you in other important activities, and do not risk the money you need for your day-to-day life or your life projects.
Dreams · Juego responsable: Decálogo del juego responsable · read
Saber de antemano el tiempo y el dinero que voy a dedicar al juego como entretenimiento, es la mejor manera de no caer en el juego compulsivo o patológico.Free translation: Knowing in advance the time and money that I am going to devote to gambling as entertainment is the best way to avoid falling into compulsive or pathological gambling.
Define un presupuesto dedicado al juego que sea compatible con tus posibilidades económicas y comprométete a no superarlo en ningún caso.Free translation: Set a gambling budget that is compatible with your financial means and commit to never exceeding it under any circumstances.
Marina del Sol (MDS Casinos) · Juego responsable: las definiciones del juego · read